Thoughts on Things

Model Evaluation For Time Series

machine-learning

time-series

Understanding the accuracy of your forecast

Univariate Models: Simple Benchmark Models

machine-learning

time-series

Creating simple models to benchmark against complex ones

Univariate Models: Exponential Smoothing

machine-learning

time-series

Understanding how an exponential smoothing model works

Weekend Reads (4/26/25)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

We Learn Best By Doing, Not By Studying

learning

school

AI

Projects are the best way to learn

Weekend Reads (4/18/25)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Weekend Reads (4/11/25)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Univariate Models: ARIMA

machine-learning

time-series

Understanding how an arima model works

The Secret to Growing Faster Than the Stock Market

life

learning

It’s easier to grow yourself faster than the S&P 500

March Learnings

life

learning

Random stuff I learned in March 2025

Univariate Models For Time Series

machine-learning

time-series

Foundational models in forecasting

Data Cleaning: Stationary

machine-learning

time-series

Removing trends from your time series

Your Genes Are Making You Sick

life

health

Understanding genetic methylation can change your life

February Learnings

life

learning

Random stuff I learned in February 2025

Life Principles

life

How I try to live my best life

Data Cleaning: Box-Cox Transformations

machine-learning

time-series

Creating better trendlines in your time series

Data Cleaning For Time Series

machine-learning

time-series

Clean data makes for accurate forecasts

January Learnings

life

learning

Random stuff I learned in January 2025

What Item Would You Bring to a Deserted Island?

AI

learning

school

Why LLMs Are the Most Important Technology Ever Created

Exploratory Data Analysis: External Regressors

machine-learning

time-series

What outside forces impact our business?

80/20 SaaS: Why AI-Driven Customization Is the Future

AI

Making software personalized to every user

December Learnings

life

learning

Random stuff I learned in December 2024

Who Ya Gonna Call? ChatGPT!

AI

If my grandpa can now use it, AI is officially mainstream

ChatGPT Pro is Cheap

AI

work

If you think it’s expensive, you’re using AI wrong

November Learnings

life

learning

Random stuff I learned in November 2024

DIY Ozempic For 90% Less Cost

life

health

A supplement stack that creates GLP-1 Naturally

Exploratory Data Analysis: Missing Data and Outliers

machine-learning

time-series

Fixing issues in your time series data

Hacking My Blood Sugar With Fiber

life

health

Eating donuts while having my body think it’s a salad

Exploratory Data Analysis: Autocorrelation

machine-learning

time-series

Understanding memory in time series

Why I Cancelled All My Streaming Apps

life

Engineering more boredom into my life

Exploratory Data Analysis: Time Series Decomposition

machine-learning

time-series

Understanding trend and seasonality patterns

Newsletters Stink

machine-learning

learning

We need a YouTube for blogs

Exploratory Data Analysis: Shape of the Data

machine-learning

time-series

Start to understand how your time series data looks

Exploratory Data Analysis For Time Series

machine-learning

time-series

Understanding your data creates better forecasts

What’s A Time Series?

machine-learning

time-series

Overview of AI and How Time Series Fits In

Thoughts On Time Series Forecasting Fundamentals

machine-learning

time-series

Understanding Core ML Concepts in Forecasting

My Path from Finance Intern to Senior Software Engineer at Microsoft

life

finance

career

How I transitioned into a technical engineering role with zero coding knowledge

Weekend Reads (8/30/24)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Weekend Reads (8/23/24)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

FAQ on Machine Learning Forecasting

finance

machine-learning

forecasting

Straightforward answers to all of your ML forecast questions

Microsoft Finance ML Forecasting Journey: Part Three

finance

machine-learning

forecasting

Democratizing machine learning to everyone in finance

Inner Circles of Life

life

How priorities change as we get older

Microsoft Finance ML Forecasting Journey: Part Two

finance

machine-learning

forecasting

Centralizing our largest forecast process with machine learning

Microsoft Finance ML Forecasting Journey: Part One

finance

machine-learning

forecasting

Going from 0 to 1 with machine learning

How To Master Storytelling

podcast

learning

No one remembers charts and numbers. They only remember stories. The best story always wins. Just don’t tell stories about your vacation. No one wants to hear that.

Time Series First Principles: Deep Learning Last

time-series

machine-learning

finance

Deep learning isn’t as effective as more traditional ML models

Time Series First Principles: Model Combinations Are King

time-series

machine-learning

finance

Usually a combination of multiple models is more accurate than just one model’s prediction

Multistep Horizon Forecasting With finnts

time-series

machine-learning

finance

finnts

New feature that improves forecast accuracy

Time Series First Principles: Capture Uncertainty

time-series

machine-learning

finance

Showing the back testing results and future uncertainty of a model’s forecast builds more trust

Time Series First Principles: Simple Models Are Better Models

time-series

machine-learning

finance

Like occam’s razor, the best model is often the one with the least amount of inputs

Time Series First Principles: The Magic Is In The Feature Engineering

time-series

machine-learning

finance

How you transform your data before model training can transform a mediocre forecast into a world class forecast

Time Series First Principles: Order Is Important

time-series

machine-learning

finance

When time is involved, how your data is ordered makes all the difference

Weekend Reads (4/19/24)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Time Series First Principles: Higher Grain Higher Accuracy

time-series

machine-learning

finance

Forecasting by country is often more accurate than forecasting by city. Forecasting by month is often more accurate than forecasting by day

Weekend Reads (4/12/24)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Time Series First Principles: The Future Is Similar To The Past

time-series

machine-learning

finance

If you expect the future to be drastically different than past data, you will have a hard time training accurate models

Time Series First Principles: Garbage In, Garbage Out

time-series

machine-learning

finance

Training a model on bad data leads to bad forecasts

Weekend Reads (4/5/24)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Time Series First Principles: Domain Expertise

time-series

machine-learning

finance

Knowing what factors actually influence what you are trying to forecast is more important than which ML model to train

Thoughts on First Principles in Time Series Forecasting

time-series

machine-learning

finance

Building blocks of creating a great forecast

Weekend Reads (3/22/24)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Weekend Reads (3/16/24)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Thoughts on Power

life

Most desires are attempts to gain power, make sure you choose the right kind

Weekend Reads (2/23/24)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Thoughts on My Journey in Microsoft’s Finance Rotation Program

career

finance

My path through the FRP and advice to aspiring and current analysts

Weekend Reads (2/16/24)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Weekend Reads (1/26/24)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Weekend Reads (1/12/24)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Weekend Reads (1/5/24)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Thoughts on The Almanack of Naval Ravikant

books

Key takeaways from the book

Weekend Reads (12/22/23)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week

Is AI the End of Specialization?

AI

LLM

How AI will change high-skill professions like medicine and law

Weekend Reads (12/9/23)

weekend-reads

Interesting things I found on the internet this week.

Large Language Model Use in Finance

llm

finance

How we can start using Generative AI technology within corporate finance

Total Addressable Market for Advanced Analytics in Finance

machine-learning

finance

Using new technology to reinvent how we look forward, look backward, and make the next best decision in finance

The ML Language Wars Are Over, Large Language Models Won

machine-learning

open-source

Picking the right tool for the job has never been easier with things like Chat-GPT

Three Levels of Machine Learning Adoption in Finance

machine-learning

time-series

finance

Beating the three levels on your way to machine learning nirvana

New Year Resolutions Are Dumb

general

Don’t do new year resolutions, be consistent instead

Switching to Quarto

general

Transitioning my site to Quarto

Free Book on Advanced Analytics in Corporate Finance

machine-learning

code

learning

open-source

Free resources on building advanced analytics talent that thrives

Time Series Forecasting Simplified with finnts

code

time-series

ml

New R package for time series

Personal User Manual

general

work

Quick facts about my working style

Pro Bono Work for Stretch Projects

code

learning

Getting experience before you’re qualified to do the work

Why Online Courses Stink

code

learning

Pitfalls of technical courses

Writing Screenplays in VS Code

code

movies-tv

open-source

Open sourcing screenwriting

freeCodeCamp Appreciation Post

code

This site rocks

Bridging the ML Talent Gap in Corporate Finance

ml

finance

Finding the diamonds in the rough